2013 NFL Mock Draft (Part 1)

In 1993, the 9-year old version of me decided that my football fate would be decided by the winner of the “Battle of the Bays” game between the Packers and Buccaneers. It was late in November, and I didn’t know much about football other than my dad was a Dolphins fan, and that the Bucs were awful. Despite entering the game neutral, I found myself rooting for the Bucs. Ultimately the Packers would escape with a 13-10 win over the underdog Bucs, but on that day I decided it didn’t matter who won – I was a Bucs fan. This began a long journey of rooting for a below-average franchise, but little did I know they were about to begin a run of draft picks that would change our fortunes for what felt like forever. As a Bucs fan, the draft is usually the highlight of the year. I still remember my first full draft in 1995, now an 11-year old boy. When I sat down with a pad of yellow paper and pen, I had no concept of “mocking” players, but I wrote down each and every draft pick, for all 7 rounds. The Bucs drafted Warren Sapp and Derrick Brooks in that draft, and would lay the foundation for our future Super Bowl win.

Since then, the NFL Draft has always been a special time of year for me, and I’m sure many others. No other weekend in sports better represents the ability for a Franchise to immediately change the course of their future. Mocks are always incredibility fun, even if you only hit on 5-10 picks a season because of the nature of the draft. As a teenager, the new draft tradition included my friend (and now brother-in-law) coming over for basically an All-Weekend event of draft coverage. We’d load up with the draft “bibles” (various magazines listing all the prospects for quick pick Afterthoughts, prior to the internet boom), pizza, wings, drinks, and a big white board with dry erase rankings of all the “best” players. We still get together on draft days, and we still get those draft “bibles” just for old time sake, although we use the internet for up-to-the-minute evaluation. I guess the next natural progression would be to attend a draft, and with teaching starting next year that could become a real possibility. For the time being, I’ll do what I’ve done for the last half a decade – make my mock draft and update it as the draft approaches. The first one is always the toughest, because there is so much left to be decided, but it’s in a lot of ways the most fun. So here it is – my 2013 Mock Draft (with trades), Version 1. Hope you enjoy!

Jump to::
Part 2 (#17-32)
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1.1 — QB Geno Smith, West Virginia
AF’s Take – Geno Smith is obviously not the best player in this draft, but the Chiefs are in a spot that is typically reserved for the best QB in a draft, and Smith is that. I still remember when Andy Reid turned in the draft card with Donovan McNabb’s name on it to a chorus of boos. I don’t think there will be any boos this time, but I certainly think Reid will take another Big East QB here in the Top 10 to lead his franchise. Geno had flashes of brilliance last year, and while he’s far from a finished product, he reminds me a lot of Cam Newton. This draft feels a lot like that season, when DTs and DEs were mocked to go [1.1] overall to the Panthers, but ultimately they took Cam and it paid off. Andy needs a QB to build his team around and sell jerseys, and I feel confident Geno is a guy that Chiefs fans will at least not root for to get a concussion. I’d then expect Andy to go out and try and get a guy like Kevin Kolb to maybe come in and compete or back-up, a nice fit considering how close this team is actually to winning. With HB Charles leading the charge, expect the team to make a push to resign WR Dwayne Bowe and compete in the weak AFC West next season.
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1.2 — DE Bjoern Werner, Florida State
AF’s Take – The Jaguars are in a tough spot, because there really isn’t a player that stands out at #2 as a franchise guy, but this class doesn’t exactly warrant trading up to #2 either. So they are “stuck”, so to say. They will have a few directions they can go, and while many might have Werner as the #2 or #3 DE/LB on the board, I think he’s easily the least likely to bust of the group. Players like Star Lotulelei, Jarvis Jones, and Demontre Moore might all have slightly higher ceilings, but the floor for Werner is so infinitely higher than those guys it’s ridiculous. Werner is a local guy who will sell some jerseys, and in a worst case scenario he’s an 8-10 sack a year guy. In his best case scenario, he’s a star DE who cashes paychecks for a decade bruising Andrew Luck. When you’re an underrated team coming off of one of the ugliest seasons in franchise history, with a new owner that has a fantastic mustache, who just changed coaching staffs after just one year, with the aforementioned new coach being of the defensive specialty, and you STILL have one of the most loyal fan bases in football – Werner is a safe pick that has real high upside. Gus Bradley was around in Tampa to see what Simeon Rice could do in his prime, and I think Werner has that potential as well. This pick likely is never made prior to the new collective bargaining agreement, but with the new cap friendly structure, all you can ask for in the Top 10 is a player who will be around contributing at a high level for a decade.
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1.3 – NT Star Lotulelei, Utah

AF’s Take – Lots of ways the Raiders could go here, and it’s no doubt slightly harder to predict without Al Davis calling the shots. Had he still been around (R.I.P.), we could likely just find a guy with a chiseled physique and speed for days. But he’s not, and the Raiders have a really awkward coaching situation in Oakland. How much say does Dennis Allen even have? I’m sure he’d love to bolster the offense in Oakland a bit, and the thought of them dredging through ANOTHER season with Carson Palmer makes my skin crawl. If there is anyone in the front office who cares about sticking around for any length of time, they need to make sure they hit on this pick, and I think Star Lotulelei is a pretty safe pick. I don’t think he’s Ngata like many compare him to, but Star will be a star in an AFC West. DT Tommy Kelly won’t be collecting that $6.5M he’s owed, and the Raiders can go a long way in fixing the image of a defense of “trouble makers” like Kelly, McClain, and past-his-prime-Warren-Sapp by drafting Star. His motor doesn’t run as hot as guys like Sapp or Ngata, but if Dennis Allen gets that engine revving, Lotulelei will be a perennial Pro Bowler.
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1.4 — OT Luke Joeckel, Texas A&M
AF’s Take – Hard to say what direction Chip Kelly will go here, as we really don’t know what kind of offense or defense he plans to run. We know Chip Kelly loves offense, and he’s inherited a talented unit that will surely feature the speed of players like Shady McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin. There are reports that Kelly likes incumbent QBs Michael Vick and Nick Foles – so maybe he waits a year to upgrade that position. His best bet is to draft an athletic offensive tackle like Joeckel who can adapt to whatever offense Kelly decides to run. Joeckel was a contributing factor to the season of Heisman Trophy winner Johnny “Football”, and he just broke the bowl game record for most rushing yards by a QB. Needless to say, Joeckel would be a nice add to lock down the left side in Philly for a decade, even if Kelly has grand plans of eventually running his infamous spread offense.
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1.5 — DE Jarvis Jones, Georgia
AF’s Take – The Lions have perhaps the best DT tandem in the league, but they face the prospect of losing DE’s Avril (FA) and KVB (retirement) this offseason. I personally think they’ll find a way to keep Avril, but even if KVB doesn’t retire, he’s likely not returning at his $5M a year price tag. They could solidify the unit by taking a prospect like Jarvis Jones, who looks like a 43 DE who has some potential to play OLB. I think the Lions fans would prefer the team goes CB Milliner here, and they might, but Jarvis Jones is a special talent for sure. The team may also look at Luke Joeckel, if the Eagles snatch Milliner at [1.4]. The Lions seem to pick like the “Best Player Available” method, and it would be hard to argue that Jones is not the best player on the board here – unless they like Moore, in which case the next two picks would just flip.
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1.6 — OLB Damontre Moore, Texas A&M
AF’s Take – It’s tough to forecast who new VP Mike Lombardi might be targeting at this spot, but considering the critical response his hiring has had around the league, it would be smart if he played it safe with this pick. I think it’s likely the team will not enter 2013 with Brandon Weeden and Colt McCoy as the top 2 QBs in Cleveland, but [1.6] is not the point to address that. Could Lambo roll the dice on Barkley? Sure, but I think a pick like that puts an immediate stop watch on your tenure in Cleveland, and if it doesn’t work out you are gone quickly. The more likely scenario is they try and get a QB via trade or Free Agency, and Ryan Mallett of the Patriots is a name most mention when connecting the dots. Maybe they can send a Future 2nd to New England for him, but I think the better move would be to swap Weeden and Mallett outright. Weeden looked overwhelmed at times on a talent-challenged Browns offense, but he is mature enough that Brady could be the perfect mentor for him in New England. If Lambo doesn’t like that idea, I think Brian Hoyer is bumping around as a Free Agent, another guy he liked a lot. With this pick, however, expect them to go safe and add an outstanding pass rusher like Damontre Moore or Jarvis Jones, who perfectly fit their “attacking” defense that has been rumored for the Browns under new DC Horton.
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1.7 — QB Matt Barkley, USC
AF’s Take – Many are down on Barkley after a rough year at USC, but I think he’s a Franchise QB and after the combine I think most scouts will as well. New Cardinals Head Coach Bruce Arians must decide who his man to lead the franchise will be, and I think most agree that guy is not on the roster currently. While Barkley is not Andrew Luck, who Arians was fabulous with in Indianapolis this year, Barkley is no stranger to luck either. The two clashed while at USC and Stanford, and there were times that Barkley even looked like an as-good or better player. Arians has had success with 1st round QBs, having helped turn Big Ben into a household name (not just in the bathroom), and helping Andrew Luck become a ROTY candidate. Barkley coming through could generate some excitement in talented players like Larry Fitzgerald, and who knows – maybe the Cardinals could be competing in the tough NFC West in a few years. Or maybe Barkley is just an overrated name from a “big college” that won’t make it in the pros, like QB Matt Leinart (USC) or HB Beanie Wells (OSU). Seeing as the Cardinals were the team who got burned on those two players, it will be interesting to see how much pull Arians actually has.
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1.8 — **TRADE w/ BUF** — DE/OLB Barkevious Mingo, LSU
AF’s Take – The Saints move up from [1.15] to [1.8] to draft local favorite Barkevious Mingo. The Saints defense was awful in 2012 (like, historically bad), and they will look to fix that in 2013. Mingo is an outstanding prospect that I think will shoot up the board as we get closer to the draft. I could see him go as high as [1.2] to the Jacksonville Jaguars, but more realistically I think his range is somewhere between [1.5] and [1.15]. Now the Saints original pick is at the backend of that range, so do they sit tight and hope he falls? I wouldn’t, unless they don’t really want him, because pass rushers are flying off the board, and the Buffalo Bills will likely be eager to move down a few slots if they really plan on taking a QB 20 picks too high (like the Bengals, Titans, Jaguars, and Vikings have made trendy in recent years).
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1.9 — **TRADE w/ NYJ** — CB DeMarcus Milliner, Alabama
AF’s Take – The Buccaneers made excellent strides in 2012, and a large reason for that was largely due to having arguably the best draft class last year. HB Doug Martin, SS Mark Baron, and OLB Lavonte David all look exceptional. I don’t mean to toot my own horn, but I had called Martin and David as Bucs picks all along, and I was ecstatic to see them work out. Moving forward the Bucs have a few holes that need to be fixed, but they are not that far from playoff contention. Many Bucs fans are overreacting to Josh Freeman’s inconsistency, which makes me severely question how long they’ve been Bucs fans. Certainly not long enough to watch Trent Dilfer, Shaun King, Craig Erickson, Jeff Garcia, Brian Griese, Chris Simms, or Bruce Gradkowski play QB. Freeman is only 25 years old, which makes him like the 2nd or 3rd youngest QB in the NFL, despite many years of NFL experience under his belt. QB is NOT the problem for these Buccaneers, and they’d be wise to lock Freeman up long-term at some point in 2013. The price is probably as low as it’s going to get now, and if they wait there is real possibility Freeman responds with a contract year performance like Joe Flacco just did.

Anyone who watched the 2012 Bucs knows their secondary was absolutely atrocious. They were starting undrafted players and street free agents at CB for the majority of the season, and it really showed. If you track the Bucs wins and losses they rarely beat an elite QB, and many times they were forced into shoot outs even against average NFL QBs. This just simply can not be the case, and while it looks like Defensive Coordinator Bill Sheridan will get another year to build on his “#1 Ranked Rush Defense”, he will NOT be back in 2014 if they don’t add a couple CBs and some pass rush. Milliner could go as high as [1.4] in this draft, but I don’t think he’s going to last past Tennessee at [1.10]. The Bucs know this, and if Milliner makes it past 5, I expect them to begin making calls to go up as high as [1.8] to land their man. Rock Star GM Mark Dominik loves drafting team captains, which Milliner is not, so maybe Dom would prefer to sit tight at [1.13] (or trade down a few) and hope for Mississippi State senior Captain CB Jonathan Banks. That said, I think if Milliner falls to the 9th pick, they’d be foolish not to reunite Milliner with former Alabama SS Mark Baron.
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1.10 — OG Chance Warmack, Alabama
AF’s Take – This is no doubt extremely high for a guard to come off the board, but Warmack is an elite talent. The Titans hopes were gashed when their Top 2 targets Mingo and Milliner come off the board the previous two picks, and while they consider reaching on a guy like CB Banks, they select arguably the best offensive lineman in the draft. Warmack will do good things for both Jake Locker and Chris Johnson, and if anyone is going to take a guard in the Top 10, it’s a Head Coach who was a former offensive lineman. Warmack was a Team Captain for the National Champions, and he will bring some positive energy to a locker room that could certainly use it after Vince Young, Adam “Pacman” Jones, and Kenny Britt.
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1.11 — OT Eric Fisher, Central Michigan
AF’s Take – I’m still a firm believer in Phillip Rivers, despite just about every media personality officially jumping off the bandwagon last year. I actually catch quite a few Chargers games – partly because I have a friend who is a big Bolts fan, partly because they are usually kicking off on the west coast right around the time the Tampa game ends, and partly because I don’t live in San Diego so the games aren’t blacked out for me. I tend to feel that the only problem with Phillip Rivers is his offensive line. New Head Coach Mike McCoy will surely come in and get at LEAST two new starters, and if Eric Fischer is there you turn the card in rather quickly. McCoy saw how much Ryan Clady helped below average QBs like Kyle Orton and Tim Tebow in Denver, and then how much he helped an elite QB like Peyton Manning last year. Rivers is not below average, nor elite, but by bringing Fisher into the fold, we may begin talking about him like one of the Top 10 QBs in the league again.
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1.12 — CB Jonathan Banks, Mississippi State
AF’s Take – Many people seem to see the Dolphins going WR here, but I just don’t buy it. Buy, being the operative word, because I think that is how anxious Owner Stephen Ross will get his WR. They definitely need targets for Tannehill to throw to, and while that beautiful wife of his is surely doing a fine job handling Ryan’s balls, she can’t catch touchdowns. I think it’s far more likely they resign Brian Hartline for a reasonable contract, and then throw some money at Greg Jennings, Wes Welker, or Dwayne Bowe. That leaves them with a few other holes to fill, and the biggest will depend on what they do with LT Jake Long. I think they’d be foolish to let him walk, and even if they are unsure about a long-term deal, their best play is to Franchise Tag him. That leaves CB as their most pressing need, and while CB Jonathan Banks at [1.12] may seem a little high, he has been a shutdown corner in college and has the frame to repeat that in the NFL.
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1.13 — **TRADE w/ TB** — MLB Manti Te’o, Nosuch Dame
AF’s Take – Really, was there any other place for Te’o? He’ll fit great in the media circus that surrounds the Jets! All jokes aside, Te’o was in discussions as a Top 5 pick and a Heisman Trophy candidate prior to finding out his girlfriend was imaginary. Te’o played awful in the National Championship game, but if you believe the timeline being reported, it’s highly likely he was playing that game knowing that all of this would leak to the media and that his draft stock would plummet. So do you give him a pass for that game? Maybe not, but I can tell you that had he balled out in that game and played like he did the rest of the season, media types and GMs would be much more likely to give him a pass for his invisible girlfriend.

Te’o would certainly need a gut check to last in New York, but I think Rex Ryan is the perfect coach to nourish him and help him realize his potential. Rex handled the “foot fetish” stuff great, and while he’s failed miserably at nourishing his QB situation, Te’o is much more talented than either Sanchez or Tebow. The Jets are in a horrible cap situation, with so much guaranteed money due the next few years that they had a very hard time filling their GM position. One tough move that likely will be made is parting ways with MLB David Harris, who is owed $10M next year and was downright awful. Te’o could do great things playing the role Bart Scott played for Rex for so many years in New York and Baltimore, and if he can keep his head straight, he will be a future Pro Bowler.

It’s very likely [1.9] would be a little too high for Te’o, but they could easily pick up at least a 4th from the Bucs to move to [1.13]. From there, they could move down a small bit again, if they felt comfortable with his prospects of dropping further, but he’s a talented player and who knows who has the same idea as the Jets to snatch him up. Considering [1.9] is about where Kuechly went last year and Te’o has better game tape than him, I firmly believe Te’o will remain a Top 20 pick. That’s how the media works with situations like this – a talented player is supposed to go very high, something happens, they trash his stock for months, and on draft day his game tape still reigns supreme and his spiral is rarely as extreme as expected. After all, I’d still rather have a player with a fake girlfriend than a player with 4 baby mamas, a deep crew, or failed drug tests. This would be a solid move for the Jets that would solidify the middle of their D, bring them the media attention they covet, and net them another pick or two.
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1.14 — DT Sheldon Richardson, Missouri
AF’s Take – The Panthers have a couple big needs, and while living here in North Carolina I can vouch the fans would love them to take a WR, there just isn’t one worthy of this selection. That does not mean they won’t target a WR later in the draft, and I think in their best case scenario they land a local favorite like WR DeAndre Hopkins from Clemson in the 2nd round. As for this pick, they have a lot of holes on defense that are just beginning to get patched up. They could go a long way at helping players like Beason and Kuechly if they draft Richardson to man the middle of the defensive line. Richardson is one of the best players in this draft, and will wreak havoc in the NFC South. He’s superior to Fletcher Cox, who many locally felt was going to be the pick in the 1st last year before they went MLB.
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1.15 — **TRADE w/ NO** — QB Ryan Nassib, Syracuse
AF’s Take – The Bills have been mocked all over the place, with the general consensus being that new Head Coach Doug Marrone will start his tenure in Buffalo by selecting his QB. I just can’t wrap my mind around them staying at [1.8] and taking anyone other than Geno Smith or Matt Barkley, and I think both of those players will be gone. Tyler Wilson and Mike Glennon do not look like Top 10 picks at all. Nassib is probably a reach in the 1st as well, but if Buffalo tries to wait until the 2nd they are taking a very costly gamble of losing out on their guy, especially since I’m not the only moron who can tie together the Marrone-Nassib ties. Nassib spent three years with Marrone at Syracuse running a Pro Style offense, and I think they can easily pick up a draft pick or two to move down and secure their hopeful Franchise QB.
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1.16 — WR Kennan Allen, Cal
AF’s Take – The Rams were probably hoping that one of the OL fell to them in this spot, but there are worse consolations than the best WR in the class. That said, the line determining the best WR is blurry, to say the least. Allen presents himself as a big target with exceptional hands that will have an amazing NFL career if he can stay healthy. Sam Bradford needs bodies to throw to, and Allen would be a fine pickup for a Rams team that is headed in the right direction. Cordarrelle Patterson, Terrance Williams, and Tavon Austin are all names to watch as well. If the Rams are impartial and don’t have any of these 4 ranked too far ahead of them – and if there is a player they really like at another position on the board – they could take that player at [1.16] and take their favorite of those 4 WRs at [1.22]. But initially, I think Allen is their best play if the board falls like this.
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Jump to::
Part 2 (#17-32)

Thanks for reading! Make sure to check out Part 2!